Smartphone innovation
will increase with 5G
Innovation in cellular and other supporting technologies as well as in
applications will sustain the rate of smartphone improvements.
Press and industry analyst response to the recent announcement
of the iPhone 7 has been lukewarm. For example, The Economist notes the
“main novelty” is it no longer has a conventional jack for headphones. That
newspaper reckons “after almost 10 heady years, dating from the release of the
first iPhone in mid-2007, both growth and pace of innovation have slowed
markedly in recent months.” I doubt the pace of innovation is really slowing or
that this could ever be reliably determined over months rather than years.
However, in conclusion, The Economist also
wisely rejects “talk of an end to the smartphone era.”
Improvements under the hood
Whereas some smartphone innovations are very overt and
revolutionary; others are not so apparent to consumers and are more
evolutionary, but are at least as significant. The multitouch capabilities
included in the first iPhone were literally very tangible and enabled access to
regular web pages, as opposed to the repurposed content hitherto required for
small displays with WAP browsers. The iPhone transformed browsing on a small
device connected to the internet via Wi-Fi, but remained hobbled as a truly
mobile device – six years after the introduction of the first 3G networks –
with only 2G cellular connectivity and a maximum downlink speed of only around
150 kilobits per second achievable. Uplink speeds were much slower still.
Performance has improved enormously over the last nine
years. LTE data rates are 1,000-times faster – at hundreds of megabits per
second in the downlink, tens of megabits per second in the uplink, and
latencies have reduced from several hundred milliseconds to tens of
milliseconds. Ever-higher maximum cellular data rates achievable in the uplink
and the downlink on the succession of iPhone models illustrates the gradual yet
relentless improvements in cellular technology. For consistency over many
years, the following chart includes fastest downlink data rates in device
testing on commercial networks or considered likely following announcement of
each new iPhone model, as indicated in contemporaneous analyst and press
reports. Maximum speeds depend on latest technologies in devices and in network
upgrades, which can take a year or so to roll out. Actual speeds are also
affected by a user’s location and radio interference with other users nearby.
For example, AT&T Mobility’s customers in New York and San Francisco suffered with slow speeds and
poor availability following the introduction of the iPhone 3GS in 2009.
Such problems are rarely so severe these days.
Exponential growth in downlink speedsOther fundamental device improvements include the number of cellular standards and frequency bands supported. The first iPhone was a single-mode GSM/GPRS/EDGE device. Over the years, CDMA, TD-SCDMA, LTE-FDD and LTE-TDD have been added to make iPhones multimode devices. Multiple frequency bands are also employed with each standard. In particular, large and increasing numbers of bands are required for LTE. Since the introduction of the iPhone 5 in 2012, with support for LTE in up to five bands, the number of LTE bands supported has increased to 23 bands in the iPhone 7. Squeezing more and more modes, bands and other cellular functions into smartphones and getting higher and higher levels of radio performance out of them is no mean feat. It requires major innovative efforts and accomplishments in various ways.
Exponential growth in downlink speedsOther fundamental device improvements include the number of cellular standards and frequency bands supported. The first iPhone was a single-mode GSM/GPRS/EDGE device. Over the years, CDMA, TD-SCDMA, LTE-FDD and LTE-TDD have been added to make iPhones multimode devices. Multiple frequency bands are also employed with each standard. In particular, large and increasing numbers of bands are required for LTE. Since the introduction of the iPhone 5 in 2012, with support for LTE in up to five bands, the number of LTE bands supported has increased to 23 bands in the iPhone 7. Squeezing more and more modes, bands and other cellular functions into smartphones and getting higher and higher levels of radio performance out of them is no mean feat. It requires major innovative efforts and accomplishments in various ways.
A lot of
inspiration and perspiration
Cellular technology developments have included some
relatively large step-changes, for example, with new air interfaces; but
developments mainly arise in a series of many incremental improvements. Even
generational upgrades can take years to deploy across networks before benefits can
be fully enjoyed. Until at least the turn of the millennium, cellular
technology improvements were overwhelmingly in supporting voice and the most
basic data capability imaginable with a maximum of 140 characters per text
message. Since then, innovations have been focused on exponentially increasing
speeds and network capacity for data. Numerous new technologies have been
developed and introduced in the last decade. Terminology for these includes
dual carrier, carrier aggregation, inter cell interference coordination,
coordinated multipoint and heterogeneous networks among many others which have
collectively boosted spectral efficiency, increased end-user data rates,
increased network capacity and lowered latency.
The development of these standard-essential technologies
is a massive coordinated endeavor involving numerous companies. According to analysis by Signals Research
Group on 262,773 submissions to five 3GPP working groups from 1999 through December 2014,
43,917 documents were approved for inclusion in standards. The approved
documents include 3G only, LTE only, and 3G and LTE documents as well as
submissions that fall outside all of these three categories – documents
pertaining to GSM/GERAN or IP multimedia subsystems are examples. More than an
estimated 1 million man-hours is spent actually in 3GPP working group meetings
each year. However, working group activity is merely the tip of the iceberg.
Mobile communications sector research and development investment is estimated
at up to $100 billion per year. Much of that is in development of
standard-essential technologies including 4G recently, and now also in 5G.
‘You ain’t seen nothing yet!’
Each successive new generation of cellular technology has
been driven by increasing technology developments, innovation and adoption by
wireless carriers and consumers. Following the rather disappointing data rates
and lackluster adoption of 3G W-CDMA between 2001 and 2005, the pace of all the
above increased with the introduction of HSDPA from around 2006, and then
increased again with the introduction of LTE from around 2010. Industry
enthusiasm for 5G is also great and so we should expect the rate of innovation to be maintained,
not diminish, with the expected introduction of 5G toward the end of the decade.
Whereas demand for 5G will be dependent on new
applications such as those in artificial intelligence and augmented reality,
some of those applications will only be possible by the improved performance
such as ultra-low latency and ultra-high availability, as well as higher data
rates that 5G communications promises. Many innovations and improvements will
be required for new types of devices and services such as with the “internet of
things,” but smartphones will also be in the frontline.
